Dear Futures Trader:
There aren't too many Commitments of Traders experts. And only one has published a newsletter analyzing each and every one of the 700 COT reports issued in the last 20 years. In 2008 Steve revealed his methods developed over 35 years of analyzing the COT report in a comprehensive book. Now is your chance to see face-to-face how Steve uses the COT data every week; how he thinks and analyzes dozens of real market situations. This is your chance to personally ask Steve your questions.
Steve's 1998 seminars were titled "The Turning Point Tour", and were timed to coincide with the end of the commodity bear market and the beginning of a new bull markets. This is one of the actual charts from that seminar where attendees heard Steve predict:.
“major
bottom in the oil complex due in December 1998 to be followed by a
generational-type bull market.”
It may be difficult now to understand how incredulous this forecast
sounded in 1998, when oil prices had fallen 74% over the previous eight
years to nearly $10 per barrel, and the press was
full of articles on why we were in an era of perpetually cheap energy,
a far cry from today's "peak oil" stories. [I won't make
you
pull out your charts.
Crude oil futures bottomed at $10.65 on Dec. 11, 1998].
But what has he done for you lately? Here's a phone message I took for Steve recently: "This is Roemer McPhee. Tell Steve for me that he is brilliant. He got it all right. Again. The stock market top last fall, the July commodity reversal, and now the dollar bottom. Just tell him 'thanks a million (in round numbers)'."
Steve is frequently asked for advise on choosing entry and exit points for special situations highlighted in the COT data. In 2002 he presented a Master Chart Trader seminar series that focused on trading off point and figure and weekly bar charts. By attending this year's seminar you will have a chance to buy the 2002 CD at a $300 savings. Discounted subscriptions to most of Steve's newsletters will also be available. Total discounts available could more than pay for your seminar fee!
This year's seminar is aimed at reviewing and expanding on the most important chapters of The Commitments of Traders Bible. If you want to know about the history of the report and how to read it, that is well detailed in the book. How to use the data, though? I don't think you can ever get enough examples and ideas. This is where the seminar will add value and bring the book to life.Of particular importance will be the what has learned about the commodity index traders, who were quite a new phenomena when Steve wrote the book. The separate reporting of commodity indexers has been both enlightening and surprising, as well as beneficial to market analysis. You really should not be trading commodity futures without a real understanding of this new dimension in COT reporting. You won't find this info anywhere else, even in the COT Bible.
There isn't anything Steve enjoys more than meeting subscribers and relating his experience. But, frankly, seminars are hard work. Steve's hedge fund project and various newsletters don't leave a lot of time for traveling, so there are just six venues this year. Each has limited space, so if you want to attend, you should reserve your seat now. The seminar dates (all Saturdays 9:00am to 5:00pm) and sites are:
| Oct. 4 - Chicago
Hyatt Regency O'Hare Airport 9300 W. Bryn Mawr Ave Rosemont, IL 60018 |
Oct 25 - New York Marriott Marquis 1535 Broadway New York, NY 10036 For this venue add $150 |
| Oct 18 - Toronto Fairmont Royal York 100 Front St Toronto, ON CANADA Pay in Loonies! |
Nov. 22 - LA/Orange County, CA
Wyndham Hotel Orange County
3350 Avenue of the Arts
Costa Mesa, CA
|
What will COT Master Seminar cost you? LESS than you probably risk on a single trade.
The seminar cost is $695 UNLESS:
- If you sign up by September 30, 2008, you may deduct $150
- If you are attending the New York seminar, please add $150. (Seminar costs in New York are way out line with every other venue. ( A box lunch costs $87!)
Just how good is this COT data? Let's have a look at a long-term bull market. Let's look at one where the futures market is small potatos next to the FOREX market. Does the COT still work?
This is the youngest of the currencies we follow, replacing the Deutchemark on the IMM futures board in January 1999. In most ways, the euro has followed the well-established Deutchemark patterns in terms of COT net positions (along with cycles and other technical studies). We could not assume this at the time, however, and it took a couple of years to build enough data history to have confidence in COT signals. Until 2001, we successfully relied on signals in the Swiss franc, which traded pretty much in lockstep with the euro.
Our first reliable signal in the euro was published on July 16, 2001 (A). The minor buy signal in the euro was accompanied by a major buy signal in the Swissie. The fact that these signals occurred at a prior support level did not escape our attention:
“This
is the first time during this bear market that Commercial buying has
appeared at the
same
price level as at the prior occurrence (last fall). This hints that
fundamentals have quit slip-
ping
in the franc. Traders should watch for confirmation of a potential
major bottom”.
This was published just 6 days following the low of the failure swing bottom that triggered the ongoing 6.5 year bull market. In December 2001 we primed subscribers for what we expected to be a long-term trade:
“In a bull market, the longer you hang on, the higher the profits. We got you in very early in the trend and now encourage you to try to stay aboard for the long term. If you get knocked out by a protective stop, we will be watching for re-entry signals.”(B)
We were fortunate to find optimum rebuying points at key retracement lows in August 2003 (C) and April 2004 (D).
But what about the major buy signal in December 2004 (E)? Commercials were buying on a scale up, not at a corrective low. I dare guess that your casual Commitments analyst did not get this one right. Although the signal was unusual it did indicate a sudden change in large trader sentiment, leading us to expect a trend change. The Dec. 13, 2004 Bullish Review carried this advice:
"CURRENCIES NEW SPECIAL SITUATION: ...There are an unprecedented number of December contracts to close out or roll over by the last trading day on Friday Dec. 17. We expect major retracements of the 3.5-year trends will develop off this rollover, and would trade a breakout of last week's high in the dollar index or low in the euro (or other IMM foreign currency we cover)."
That retracement lasted exactly 12 months during which a single short IMM euro contract gained $25,000 (on a correction!). After an initial bout of selling, commercial buying appeared near the bottom of the correction. On Nov. 25, 2005, we noted trader extremes across the currency spectrum (F):
“With Commitments at such historic extremes, we suspect that this dollar bull move [euro pull back] has reached its probable limit. Since the next trend possibilities include a resumption in the dollar bear market, it seems reasonable to lock in long dollar profits. Yen net positions are at a 6.5-year extreme. Franc net positions are at a record extreme. Pound net positions are at 6-year extreme. Commercials are near net long record level in euro.
This was just five days ahead of the resumption of the bull trend that lasted two years and accumulated a $40,000 increase in each long euro contract. The COT Index took on a textbook bull market pattern during this uptrend, with nearly continuous bearish readings reflecting commercial scale up selling. Commercials did buy on corrections, however, providing us exceptionally timely buy signals at October 2006 (G) and August 2007 (H).
The euro appeared to run out of steam in November 2007, consolidating in a 3-month trading range. Was this THE top, or just a resting place in the euro bull market? Commercial buying and a major COT buy signal on February 11 (I) tipped us off to the next bull leg, which has so far accumulated per contract profits totaling $17,000:
“The proximity to the lower trading range boundary makes a low-risk long entry available, in anticipation of an imminent breakout above the upper boundary.” -2/1/2008 Bullish Review
What have we learned from this exercise?
- COT signals are highly effective in the euro.
- Play for the big move and try to stay aboard.
- But major corrections cannot be ignored.
- Bullish Review is an awesome newsletter.
- All of the above.
A word from Steve:
I was 50 years old when I did the Turning Point Tour ten years ago. Do the math. At this rate, the opportunity to attend a future COT seminar is anything but a sure bet. There certainly are none planned. I hope I'll see you this fall.
Seminar attendees have come to expect a little bonus look at my proprietary long-term cycle work. You will not be disappointed this year.
My 100% iron-clad guarantee of satisfaction:
I absolutely guarantee you will be pleased with this seminar: If you do not feel you have gotten your money's worth by noon, just tell us. We'll refund your entire seminar fee, no questions asked.
I do NOT guarantee profits:
ALL TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
PROMISES,
GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES SUGGESTING THAT ATTENDING THIS SEMINAR OR
EMPLOYING STRATEGIES DISCUSSED AT THIS SEMINAR WILL RESULT IN A PROFIT
OR WILL NOT RESULT IN A LOSS. FUTURES TRADING HAS LARGE RISKS. YOU MUST
BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST
IN THE FUTURES MARKETS. DON'T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO
LOSE. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION
PERMITS YOU TO PARTICIPATE IN THE FUTURES INDUSTRY. IN SO DOING, YOU
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES CAN QUICKLY
LEAD TO LARGE LOSSES AS WELL AS GAINS. SUCH TRADING LOSSES CAN SHARPLY
REDUCE THE VALUE OF YOUR ACCOUNT AND IT IS POSSIBLE TO LOSE MORE THAN
YOUR ACCOUNT BALANCE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO
BUY OR SELL FUTURES OR OPTIONS.
SEE ALSO: CFTC
FRAUD ADVISORIES PAGE
Who should attend this seminar?
* The COT report is essential
information for
futures, options, and forex traders. You are at a big disadvantage if
you do not understand the weekly Commitments report.
* Hedge fund and CTA manager, traders,
and modelers
often overlook or misused this data and would benefit by attending.
* Certainly anyone responsible for
hedging using
futures, options, or related derivatives should be fully conversant
with this critical report. Stock, fund and ETF traders can gain an edge
by keeping up with Commitment's data in individual sectors as well as
stock index futures.
* Attendees of prior seminar will find
this one more advanced and should add significantly to your knowledge
base.
* If you are new to trading or
unfamiliar with
futures, you should already have read "The Commitments Of Traders
Bible," or you may have trouble keeping pace.
Haven't read the book yet?
The most important chapters of the book deal with how to analyze the Commitments of Traders report and apply it to your trading and investing. These are the chapters Steve will be highlighting and expanding on:Chapter 4: Fading
Small Speculators and other Half-Baked Schemes
TIP: Always follow commercials.
TIP: Net long
is bullish; net short bearish.
TIP: Always
fade the small speculator.
TIP: It is
only logical to compare hedging to the
seasonal average.
TIP: The COT
is old news by the time it is
released.
Chapter 5: Net
Positions
Open interest
Constructing net positions charts
Large Speculator Patterns
Commercial Patterns
Small Trader
Patterns
Commodity Index Traders
Chapter 6: The COT
Index
Calculating the COT Index
Alternative Look-back periods
The COT Index as the Great Normalizer
Interpreting the COT Index
Heal Thyself
Chapter 7: COT
Movement Index
Commercial Movement Index
40-Point COT Surge Rules (Commercials)
Combining the Indexes
Fund Movement Index
Chapter 10: Chart
Pattern Validation
A Brief Charting Primer
Bottom Formations
Top Formations
Continuation
Patterns
Chapter 11: Getting
Technical.
COT–Stochastics
COT MACD–Histogram
COT–RSI
Standard deviation (Bollinger) bands
The Commitments of Traders report and its
government publisher, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC),
have had a lot of press since Steve wrote his book a year ago. Much of
this centered on the role of commodity index traders in the futures
markets.